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NASA's New Rockets

Yesterday I wondered about NASA risk-taking by comparing asteroid risk to discovery risks, and wondered how these high risk - high cost choices get made. I guessed that most science policy people consider the current shuttle risk of about 1 in 100 (proven at 1 in 57) to be absurdly high for such a pricey program, and I wondered what level of risk might be acceptable for the next generation of launch vehicles.

Well, here's the first lick at the answer: 1 – 1000. William Broad reported in the NY Times today about NASA's preliminary plans for orbit entry redesign – or at least the plans that industry is pushing and NASA is listening to closely. Here are some quotes:

Just as important, officials and private experts say, the small rocket for astronauts would be at least 10 times as safe as the shuttle, whose odds of disaster are estimated at roughly 1 in 100. The crew capsule atop the rocket would rendezvous in orbit with gear and spaceships that the bigger rocket ferried aloft, or with the International Space Station.

"It's safe, simple and soon," said Dr. Horowitz, an industry executive since he left the astronaut corps in October. "And it should cost less money" than the shuttles. Their reusability over 100 missions was originally meant to slash expenses but the cost per flight ended up being roughly $1 billion.

So at least one industry connection considers 1 in 1000 to be "safe."

After January 2004, when Mr. Bush announced a national effort to "extend a human presence across our solar system," Dr. Horowitz hit on the idea of using the shuttle's booster rocket as a first stage. He did the math and found it ideal. Moreover, the booster rocket was already approved for human flight and - despite its role in the 1986 Challenger disaster - had earned an excellent safety record.

I'm not sure I consider one catastrophic failure in 114 events to be evidence of "an excellent safety record."

And finally we get to the meaty stuff:

Dr. Horowitz said industry studies put the risk of catastrophic failure for the newly envisioned crew rocket at 1 in 1,000 to 3,000. "It's never going to be like driving your car," he said. "But it's a huge step in the right direction."

After leaving the astronaut corps, he went to work for the booster maker, ATK Thiokol, where he now leads the company's effort to develop the new family of rockets. An ATK Web site, www.safesimplesoon.com, discusses the shuttle-derived vehicles. The giant cargo rocket would feature a large fuel tank atop throwaway shuttle engines and, hanging on its side, a pair of shuttle booster rockets.

Even if the numbers are right, the conflict of interest here is apparent. A spokesman for the $3B company that wants to sell NASA the rockets to be used in future human spaceflight is also pushing the company-derived risk data that will be critical for political approval. Obviously NASA will eventually do its own risk estimates if the decide to use ATK products, but NASA has proved in the past to be lax on contractor oversight.