March 29, 2006
Pielke Sr. and Jr. Profiled in Nature
Posted to Author: Pielke Jr., R. | Hodge Podge
Here is a link to the article.Posted on March 29, 2006 10:37 AM
Now I know that Nature has totally lost it! :^)
Posted by: Chip Knappenberger at March 29, 2006 02:36 PM
Nice puff piece. Are they making nice for some reason?
Posted by: Dano at March 29, 2006 04:59 PM
Congratulations, you were painted as Jesus Christ and His father. ;-)
Posted by: Lubos Motl at March 29, 2006 05:16 PM
Congrats on the appearence. I blogged it, of course.
I don't understand "neither father nor son thinks that predicting global average climate trends is possible". Do you really believe that? RP Sr has posted an ambiguous comment on my blog, so I don't know whether he supports it or not. Did you say that, or is its Natures inaccurate paraphrase?
Posted by: William Connolley at March 30, 2006 12:50 PM
Predicting climate trends will be possible after figuring out all the specific biota responses, circulation changes from land use changes, quantify clould influences, black carbon effecxts, etc...
Posted by: Steve Hemphill at March 30, 2006 01:33 PM
Thanks. Overall I think that the author did a nice job, though that was one of two sentences that I'd quibble with, but I think that most readers would understand. That sentence does not accurately reflect my views, and I don't think my father's either. I chalk it up to a situation of too much subtlety for the available few words, which probably has more to do with the complexity of the issues rather than anything else.
A direct reply to your question:
Of course it is possible to predict global average climate trends. I'm not clear on what is actually implied by saying that it is not possible. I am sure my father would same something with a great deal of subtlety about how _accurate_ prediction in unlikely without considering the full spectrum of first-order effects. And of course a lot more could be said (and has) about climate prediction and its uses.
Also, FYI I co-edited a whole book on "prediction," which includes a chapter by Steve Rayner (now at Oxford) on climate change, and Dan Sarewitz and I have written extensively on this subject. For instance:
Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2003: The role of models in prediction for decision, Chapter 7, pp. 113-137 in C. Canham and W. Lauenroth (eds.), Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observations, Synthesis, and Prediction, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr. at March 30, 2006 01:34 PM
Hi Roger, thanks for that reply.
Posted by: William Connolley at March 31, 2006 02:05 AM