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August 29, 2005Historical Hurricane DamagePosted to Author: Pielke Jr., R. | Environment Here are a few estimates of damage from relevant historical hurricanes had they occurred in 2004. I'd guess, and it is nothing more than a guess, that Katrina will exceed the amounts of Betsy, Camille and Hugo but not Andrew. 1965 Betsy $18 billion For methods, see this paper: Pielke, Jr., R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United States: 1925-95. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 13, 621-631. (PDF) Posted on August 29, 2005 10:35 AMCommentsCorrection: Andrew should be $58 billion and this includes both FL and LA landfalls. Posted by: Roger Pielke Jr. at August 30, 2005 10:23 AM With 80% of a major city flooded along with many of its suburbs, do you still think Katrina will be in second place? Posted by: Steve Bloom at August 30, 2005 12:46 PM Steve- Thanks. It sure does look like Katrina will rival Andrew for second place (after the great 1926 storm, at a normalized ~$110 billion) in terms of total losses. My guess is that the flooding won't dramatically increase the total to insurers, as flooding generally is covered by the government. It is without a doubt a huge disaster. Posted by: Roger Pielke Jr. at August 30, 2005 02:15 PM As New Orleans continues to be engulfed by flood waters, it is looking more and more like this could be the most consequential natural disaster ever in the US. Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr. at August 30, 2005 06:56 PM Not every day a city this large gets washed off the map. I think this will hit the number one spot. Is it even worth rebuilding there? Posted by: Dylan Otto Krider at August 30, 2005 09:42 PM From the WWL blog: '3:43 P.M. - Senator Vitter: New Orleans will "absolutely" be rebuilt.' This is my second favorite quote so far after Mayor Nagin's comment that this is an "event of a lifetime" (meaning in context that we don't have to worry about this event repeating itself in the forseeable future). So, let's say they rebuild. Then a Cat 5 hits the rebuilt city dead-on (as almost occurred this time). Is there any chance that we won't see something very similar to what we're seeing now, albeit with with a lot more direct storm damage and loss of life? Our problem is that the same politicians we hope will exercise reasonable caution with regard to global warming will within a matter of weeks be voting to spend the billions necessary to repaint the target.
Posted by: Steve Bloom at August 30, 2005 11:04 PM Re the below: What engineering geniuses thought it would be fine to place these pumps below sea level and under roofs that were collapsible in a major hurricane (when they would be needed most)? More evidence that human society is incapable of rational long-term planning.
http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/news/breaking_news/12516590.htm "... Flooding specialists predicted that conditions could worsen as Some flood-control pumps were broken, choked by excess water or storm In a frustrating catch-22, it will be hard to fix the pumps and restore Posted by: Steve Bloom at August 30, 2005 11:19 PM |
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